Placed in the G20 Leaders Summit in Seoul, Korea is a tough battle before: to calm the currency smoke looming war, to eliminate the threat of protectionism, a compromise of domestic policy focus of the conflict and to avoid second bottom in the global economy, to prevent the emergence of new asset bubbles, reshaping the world s confidence in economic recovery; and I hope the summit will seek common ground while reserving differences and reach a consensus to reverse the global economic imbalances, maintaining the momentum of global economic recovery.
Money is not the only problem currently facing, not even the most important issue. The key question is the lack of global co ordinate actions, especially in a world economy is being dragged to the different forces in different directions of the crucial moment.
Uneven economic recovery policies diverge
World economy is picking up, but the extent of the recovery was uneven.
Emerging market economies accounted for one third of the total world economy, but driving a two thirds of economic growth. This is in sharp contrast with the West, with the gradual disappearance of the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus, winding, difficult and economic growth in the West before. The situation in Europe is the European Union external economies, such as Greece and Ireland into recession; the center economies such as Germany, the economic recovery momentum. European young workers alarmingly high rate of unemployment in Spain up to 45 in the UK, every three 16 17 year olds have an unemployment every five young people aged 18 24 have 1 unemployed. The United States is big business and big banks are in very good, but small businesses and the state of regional banks is very fragile.
Currently, the size of the world economy has reached an amazing 62 trillion, compared with before the financial crisis has increased, is also 10 years ago, twice the size. Also showed recovery of the global trade situation, almost back to pre recession peak.
Changes in the global economic outlook led to the Global Policy Center, there are profound differences between France and Germany, the United States and Asia. Overall strength of the global economy becomes vacant, this is the most not supposed to exist. Over the past year, all countries work together to coordinate global economic policies, and work against the common threat of recession. Policies had been effective. At present, the policy shift economies to meet the needs of the domestic economy. This approach is understandable, but potentially dangerous consequences.
Seek common ground while reserving differences
Second bottom of the Western fear of the economy, and Eastern concerns about inflation and the financial market bubble.
Induced second bottom of the factors that may be policy failures, soaring oil prices and other external shocks events or loss of confidence. The biggest risk is that the Western policy of excessive regulation, which limits the bank s lending capacity. Tightening of fiscal policy environment, Europe has begun to do so, the United States may follow suit in the mid term elections is easy to see why the West to maintain a low interest rate policy in a long time. America is clearly needed low interest rates, however, within Europe, it seems very interested in German interest rates, even in England, but also view holds that a rate hike. It will be a serious policy mistake. The trouble is that the West need to maintain low interest rates, but with the capital flows to emerging markets, will create problems there. Re opened for the U.S. printing money, there are believed to cause resistance to inflation in Asia. Before the downturn in the global economy, China and other Asian economies is very successful to control the economy, prudent macro control measures in the use of bank credit and financing behavior constraints. Now, these economies need to raise interest rates, but the fear which attract large sums of speculative foreign exchange inflows. Expected to be more economic experience of countries like Brazil and Thailand, as use of capital controls.
Given the current pressures facing the global economy, the global decision makers need to seek common ground , and strive to achieve savings and secure country and the balance between debtor countries. What is worrying is that excessive body burden of adjustment falls on saving the country, making them compress expenditure. This is still happening. In addition to the adjustment of debtor countries should do, the savers should increase spending. For Germany, this is like the performance requirements of good performance, as do worse, and were always simple but he himself will save massive profligate chip in Greece and Germany will be resisted.
Harmony and the other is to solve the controversy about the money. Diving through the 2008 British pound remained silent on this issue. China has become the focus, but the Chinese would say strong economic growth in China has contributed to world economic recovery. The future revaluation of the renminbi is expected to be, but only a gradual appreciation. Because differences in national interest demands, G20 summit to reach any deal is unlikely. Perhaps, to step forward is frankly admitted that differences difficult to put down the most difficult part of the agreement, focusing on finding common ground to rebuild confidence and strength of the overall leadership of the global economy.
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