India s Central Bureau of Statistics data released in the third quarter of India s economy has maintained strong growth momentum. However, including some Asian countries, including Japan and South Korea Economic data is not satisfactory, as the Asian economic slowdown adding new card.
Analysts said Asian central banks facing a severe test of inflation, the risk of slower economic growth in Asia has become increasingly evident, Asian countries are emerging division of monetary policy.
Greatly increased the probability of the central bank to raise interest rates in India
Data show that by promoting agricultural growth, India s economic growth in the third quarter, 8.9 , higher than previous market forecasts of 8 . At the same time, the Indian economic growth rate in the second quarter was revised from 8.8 to 8.9 in 2007, the highest level since the fourth quarter.
Economic expectations for the full year, the Indian Government for the fiscal year of 8.5 economic growth target and plans to achieve in the next fiscal year, an increase of 9 . Rating agency Crisil in Mumbai, India, said principal analyst Josh, even though India s central bank has been gradually reducing the intensity of easing, the government has also reduced some of the fiscal stimulus plan, but the third quarter of India s economy to achieve strong growth.
Some analysts said the strong economic growth has helped the Indian government to provide more subsidies for manufacturers to curb inflation. However, India s inflation pressure is still large, due to strong domestic demand, pushing prices upward. La Yanan DBS Bank economist, said inflation remains the biggest threat facing the Indian economy, India s central bank is expected in the first quarter of 2011, will again raise interest rates. In addition, the Indian central bank interest rate increases next year will not be less than 75 basis points.
Asian economic growth may slow
Although the Asian economic growth rate still higher than the rest of the world, but the country fell into economic growth differentiation, so that most Asian central bank policy makers have to slow down the pace of rate hikes.
METI data released yesterday showed that Japanese industrial production in October were down a seasonally adjusted 1.8 in first 5 months of consecutive decline. Japan Bureau of Statistics data showed the Japanese unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in October to 5.1 , indicating that economic stimulus measures introduced by the Government due to suppress domestic demand, Japan s job market is becoming weak.
Korean Bureau of Statistics data released yesterday showed that industrial output in South Korea in October were down 4.2 for the 3rd consecutive month of decline, was expected to increase 0.6 . Some analysts said the South Korean economic growth has started to slow down, but the slow speed may be much higher than expected.
Recently, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia, published data have shown that three quarter economic growth has started to slow down. JP Morgan analysts also expect the Australian economy may fall into the third quarter of contraction, which are slowing economic rebound in Asia have added new evidence speculation. Some analysts said that China and India as Asia s last remaining major driving force of economic growth, but the two countries continue to fight inflation or to cool the economy, coupled with the debt crisis in Europe is difficult to eliminate, Asia, and the risk of slower global economic growth increasingly evident.
In addition, Citigroup said in a report, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged in 2011.
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